A fiscal situation in which a countrys gdp or output is actually sustaining a negative growth for at least two straight quarters or half a year is called an economic economic downturn. For the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), recession is really a significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.
Economic recession lasts for 14 months and may attain until two years. While an economic depression that is short lived is named economic correction. Meanwhile a sustained recession gets a depression.
What causes recessions to take place?
There are complex factors as well as simple reasons why financial recessions happen. John Maynard Keynes states that there are animal spirits as driving factors for a recession. Animal spirits might be confidence, uncertainty, and also pessimism. These animal spirits prevent objectivity and also quantitative analysis.
An example in which these animal spirits take over, happens when consumers lose interest on products and outputs. On the eve of an economic recession, there will be overproduction. Supply will certainly exceed the demands of merchandise and goods.
This can push companies to improve prices and customers will lose confidence and will also be uncertain in acquiring products. Until the event which consumers will stop getting. Another example for this element driving economic downturn will be the psychological effect the events with the September 11 attacks upon consumers and the people.
Some economists declare that recession may not simply be caused by events which have large or huge impact on the people. Events which hurt particular organizations or industries may also cause recession. Key innovations or change in a price of a major component needed in the culmination of the product might have dramatic effects about some firms. These may cause reduction of workers or production.
Overconsumption can also be a contributing factor to recession. Spending more that what is necessary may lead to recession and poverty. And example will be the major fuss over the costs of the United States in the Iraq war. Economists are saying the United States should be careful with their consumption later on.
Government economic guidelines can be used to avoid financial economic breakdown. But failure to provide good economic policies can lead to recession. There are some errors that can be made in financial policies. There are some economic policies that can create a boom and bust line. This means that the economy is running in an unsustainable pace. Inflation will be increasing.
Another policy error is that the policymakers are not attentive sufficient to see the growing inflation and oncoming of recession. Policymakers often times respect the onset of recession as just a sluggish economic growth and will correct themselves. But disappointment to address this may lead to more economic disasters.
Economic decline is not just a United States concern. The United Nations expressed an alarm that there might be a global economic recession as early as Jan 2008. According to United Nations, world economic progress for 2008 is actually estimated to be on 3.4 percent, flowing in the down trend because 2006 (3.9 percent) and 2007 (3.7 percent).
The actual bursting of the housing market bubble of the United States as well as the unfolding credit crisis of some other countries are some allies for a global economic depression. Currently, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have been in risk of experiencing financial economic breakdown due to credit crisis.
To summarize, economic recession can be as a result of external as well as inner economic shocks and also widening imbalances throughout the market. Numerous ways can cause economic downturn. Steps can be undertaken in order to avoid altogether this kind of days of economic downturn to happen. But the most hard part is to recover from the impacts of the economic turmoil.